最大的銅消費國——中國，據稱正計劃禁止進口一些用于提煉廢五金的機械廢料，這將進一步緊縮該國的銅供給。根據世界金屬統計局(world Bureau of metal Statistics)的數據，在這個時候，世界生產的精煉銅產量已連續三個月落后于消耗量。今年早些時候，必和必拓(BHP Billiton Ltd.)在智利的迪達銅礦（Escondida）發生了為期六周的罷工，再加上自由港旗下印尼格拉斯伯格礦(Grasberg mine)被暫時禁止出貨，這一系列因素導致了全球銅產量下降。
Four Charts Supporting Freeport CEO’s Bullish Case for Copper
By Luzi Ann Javier
(Bloomberg) -- Copper has surged to a two-year high, and the world’s biggest publicly traded producer of the metal says the rally may just be getting started. Prices jumped as much as 2.1 percent on Wednesday to $2.9055 a pound. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Chief Executive Officer Richard Adkerson said $4 copper is “in the cards.” These charts show why the outlook may be turning more bullish for the metal.
1. Supply Troubles
China, the top copper consumer, is said to be planning a ban on some imports of machinery waste used to extract metal scrap, which would further tighten the nation’s domestic supply. It comes at a time when world production of the refined metal has trailed consumption for three straight months, according to World Bureau of Metal Statistics data. The deficits arose after a six-week strike at BHP Billiton Ltd.’s Escondida mine in Chile earlier this year and a temporary ban on shipments from Freeport’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which curbed global output.
2. Dwindling Spending
Despite the rally in copper, producers including Freeport are still reluctant to boost spending on new mines after a three-year slump in prices through 2015 forced many to shut unprofitable operations. “You don’t see people jumping up to invest in new projects, and new projects are very scarce,” Adkerson said in an earnings call with analysts Tuesday. Capital spending is seen shrinking this year to the smallest since 2007, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data.
3. China’s Demand
Economists have raised their forecasts for China’s economic growth, signaling stronger demand for the metal used in pipes and electrical wiring that goes into everything from power grids to cell phones. In the second quarter, the nation posted better- than-expected growth as industrial output and retail sales jumped in June. The deficit outlook for the metal is “sparked largely by the more solid base of growth in China,” Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc. in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It looks like the growth spurt in China, however politically induced it might be, is really going to sustain the rally for a couple more months.”
4. Technical Indicators
Even charts used by analysts to predict prices signal the metal could extend gains. Copper’s ascent to $2.9055 on Wednesday, the highest since May 2015, sent the metal well above the upper limit of its Bollinger band for a second straight day. That may spur more buying from algorithmic traders. Last week, hedge funds piled in, boosting their net-bullish copper bets on the London Metal Exchange to the highest in 20 weeks.